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WHAT 'BOMB IRAN' REALLY TAKES

by Ralph Peters

MY greatest worry on Iran's nuclear threat to civilization isn't the military option. It's trying that option on the cheap.

If there's any way to block Tehran's pursuit of nukes short of warfare, I'm all for it. Maybe yesterday's dispatch of the No. 3 US diplomat to observe the European Union's talks with the mullahs about their nukes will work a miracle (don't hold your breath).

Military strikes must be the last resort.

Even a successful attack would panic oil markets, interrupt supplies to an unknown degree and make enemies of the Iranian people for another generation.

But the fanatics in Tehran may leave us no peaceful alternative.

In that case, the most disastrous thing we could do would be to launch an economy-model attack.

If forced to strike, we have to do it right.

When safe-at-home ideologues bluster, "Just bomb 'em," they haven't a clue how complex this problem is.

Nor is there any chance that the Israelis could handle Iran on their own (their recent air-force exercise was psychological warfare). As skilled as their pilots and planners may be, the Israelis lack the capacity to sustain a strategic offensive against Iran –– or to deal with the inevitable mess they'd leave behind in the Persian Gulf. Israel's aircraft could do serious damage to Iran's nuke program, but the US military would face the potentially catastrophic aftermath.

Without compromising any secrets –– the Iranians already know what we'd need to do –– here are the basic requirements for smacking down Iran's nuke program:

Take out Iran's air-defense and intelligence network to protect our attacking aircraft.
Take down its national communications network to degrade its military reaction.
Strike dozens of dispersed nuclear-related targets –– some of them in hardened underground facilities, with others purposely placed in populated areas.
Hit every anti-ship-missile installation along Iran's Persian Gulf coast and the Straits of Hormuz. The reflexive Iranian response to an attack would be to launch sea-skimmer missiles against oil tankers and Western warships. The Iranians know that oil's now the world's Achilles heel.
Destroy Iran's naval capacity, including small craft, in the first 24 hours to prevent attacks on shipping (expect suicide attacks, too).

Ralph Peters is a former Army Lt. Colonel. Over the years he has authored books on Russian and the Middle East, including "Never Quit the Fight," "Wars of Blood and Faith," and "Looking for Trouble: Adventures in a Broken World."

This article was published July 17, 2008 in the New York Post and is archived at
http://www.nypost.com/seven/07172008/postopinion/opedcolumnists/ what_bomb_iran_really_takes_120263.htm

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