Think-Israel

THINK-ISRAEL

DENIAL ON THE NILE

by Rand H. Fishbein, Ph.D.

[This is a reprint of an article that appeared in the International Jerusalem Post, September 28, 2001.]

As Americans learn more about the terrorists who attacked them, an uncomfortable fact is emerging.

Far from being the product of rogue states, the perpetrators were reportedly Saudi and Egyptian, and appear to be part of a vast network linked to the attacks on the Khobar Towers, the USS Cole, and the East African embassies. The Egyptian connection is particularly disturbing, since there are indications that the Mubarak administration itself has moved sharply away from the US orbit.

Just as the Oslo process has faltered, so too America's Arab alliance network in the Middle East has shown signs of strain.

Not only has a new, militant Islam made deep inroads into all strata of Egyptian society, but the government itself has become an ever more vociferous critic of US policy. In a sharp rebuke to Washington, Cairo spearheaded the drive to condemn Israel during the Durban conference, and pressed - in vain - the European Union to impose sanctions on Jerusalem.

When word of the Twin Tower attacks reached Cairo, there was reportedly street-level jubilation, a natural aftermath of years during which torching the US flag was a common sight on Egyptian university campuses, while the US swallowed the insult.

Both despite and because of an annual US aid package of approximately $1.3 billion, Egypt looms as a growing strategic threat to Israel and cannot be discounted as an adversary in any future regional conflict.

After nearly a generation of massive US aid, Egypt's military is fully modernized, equipped, and trained by the US. The largest Arab army is now better able to attack than ever before. This is worrisome.

With no apparent threat to its territorial integrity, Cairo seems poised for war. Its political and military leaders have said repeatedly they would not stand idly by if Israel mounted sustained operations inside Palestinian-controlled territories. This, despite a 20-year peace treaty with Israel, and a pledge to resolve all bilateral disputes non-violently.

Tensions between Cairo and Jerusalem have been building for years as torrents of inciteful rhetoric poured out of the state-run media. Using Nasserist language, political and military leaders routinely call for a holy war to capture Jerusalem.Â Anti-Semitic cartoons portray Israel as using HIV/AIDS as a weapon against the Arab people.

Still, the US has seemed strangely disengaged in the face of all this, using little of its economic or political leverage to make Egypt change. Instead, the Pentagon recently approved a host of Egyptian arms requests, including a green light to assemble more than 100 additional Abrams M1A1 tanks at a cost of $590 million. This brings to 755 the number of advanced American tanks now in the Egyptian inventory.

Within just the last five months, Washington has approved the sale of 26 Lockheed Martin Multiple-Launch Rocket Systems (MLRS) with extended-range rockets, six SPS-48E three-dimensional land-based radar systems and associated equipment, and an additional E-2C Hawkeye airborne early warning and control aircraft. Egypt already has five of the aircraft.

On August 19th, Egypt got four new F-16's. Cairo also is in the market for Halter Marine fast attack missile boats and 311 "identification friend or foe" (IFF) systems, which are useful for offensive battlefield operations.

As America's economy falters, the allure of weapons sales to Egypt is as great as was the allure of sales to Iraq before '91. But as Washington should have learned from that experience, American foreign policy is best served by a longer-term view.

Most unsettling, Washington has turned a blind eye to Egypt's acquisition of some 50 North Korean No-Dong missiles. In official briefings the Pentagon plays down the threat, noting only that Cairo possesses Scud-B missiles. Other countries, such as Libya, Iran, and Pakistan are singled out by name as cooperating extensively with North Korea, but not Egypt.

The standard No-Dong has a range of between 1,000 and 1,300 kilometers and could easily hit most targets in Israel. More than 300 North Koreans are reportedly in Egypt and Libya readying the missiles.

While all this is going on, the US military is set to begin the world's largest joint military exercise with Egypt and eight other countries. Dubbed "Bright Star," the biennial event is the capstone of the US-Egypt relationship, involving 14,000 US troops. Meanwhile, ever since the terrorist bombing of the USS Cole last October, joint training with Israel has all but ground to a halt. It is unclear what signal the US is trying to send. Has the US made a strategic decision to distance itself from Israel, in yet another effort to appease sentiments in the Arab world? After the attacks in Washington and New York, such a move is unlikely to sit well with an outraged American public.

Back in February, Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld proposed that the US withdraw a significant portion of its 865-man observer force that has monitored the peace agreement between Egypt and Israel in the Sinai. This would ignore the Middle East's newly demonstrated explosiveness and Egypt's ongoing girding for war.

Rather than withdrawing troops, the US should be enhancing its presence, deploying new, and ever more sophisticated early warning systems, and assisting both sides in halting the smuggling of weapons to Palestinian terrorists through tunnels burrowed under the border from Egypt to Gaza.

Instead, confusion reigns in US Middle East policy. As with Iraq a decade ago, the US has been ignoring the warning signs of a potential conflict, hoping that with time, and business as usual, the problem will go away. History, however, suggests otherwise.

While the US contemplates retaliation for the worst attack on American soil since the British burned Washington in 1812, it will have to consider whether the weapons it supplies to Egypt today could be used against American forces tomorrow. This certainly was the case with Iran, Iraq, and Afghanistan during the last 20 years. For Jerusalem, the continued sales to Egypt merely mock the longstanding commitment of successive American presidents to ensure Israel's qualitative military edge over any combination of regional enemies.

As war looms in the weeks and months ahead, those on night watch in the Pentagon's situation room should make sure to keep a clean set of clothes handy. It could be a long winter.

Rand H. Fishbein is a former staff member of the US Senate Defense Appropriations and Foreign Operations Appropriations subcommittees. He is president of the Potomac-based public-policy firm, Fishbein Associates, consultants to government and industry. Its website address is http://www.fishbeinassociates.com